Apple's latest iPhone16 has been announced, but a few days ago, the news that "iPhone16 does not support WeChat" rushed to the hot search many times. Both Apple and WeChat refuted the news for the first time, but from the response to the rumor, we can feel that there are not many differences. The focus of the contradiction between the two sides is the issue of the sharing of the "apple tax" represented by the mini game.

The game is divided, and the contradiction between Apple and WeChat is not just breaking out today, but there are early signs. In August this year, Tencent's chief strategy officer admitted for the first time in an earnings call that Tencent is in talks with Apple about the revenue of Mini Games, exploring ways to offer in-app transactions through Apple's iOS payment system. Tencent emphasized that it does not currently charge for Mini Games through the iOS in-app purchase channel, and that they are discussing with Apple whether to enable the feature, which will benefit developers, users, Apple and Tencent. Earlier, in May this year, Apple issued notices to Tencent and ByteDance, asking the two companies to block external payment channels to prevent users from bypassing Apple for payment. If Tencent and Byte do not ban third-party payment channels, Apple will stop accepting version updates for apps like WeChat and Douyin. Some users found that the iOS version of WeChat had not been updated for two months, and it was not until September 6 that the news of Apple's release of the WeChat version update came out. According to foreign media reports, this is a compromise between the two sides in order to buy more time for negotiations. But neither Apple nor WeChat responded to media speculation. And news such as "iPhone no longer supports WeChat" also spread in this context. In fact, every time Apple releases a new product, there is always a wave of similar news. Everyone is happy to discuss this topic, but in fact, the discussion is not about "choosing one or the other", but about whether the new iPhone is worth buying. Compared with previous years, many people speak for Apple, and this year's public opinion has obviously changed, and there are more people who support WeChat. This trend reflects that today's Apple, whether in mobile phone hardware or iOS system software, no longer has the same irreplaceable advantages as it did back then. And when the advantages of software and hardware continue to weaken, the rationality of the 30% Apple tax will naturally be more questioned. In the final analysis, in the early years, Apple users were willing to pay "taxes" because Apple provided better hardware innovation and software services. Apple's hardware has become a learning object for global mobile phone manufacturers, and the iOS app store is synonymous with high quality and one of Apple's main sources of profit. According to Apple's third-quarter results, the revenue of the software business reached $24.213 billion. According to Counterpoint Research, software services will account for about a quarter of Apple's total revenue in 2025, about $100 billion. However, over the past few years, Apple's advantages in both hardware and software have been weakened. In terms of hardware, Apple has been challenged by a number of domestic Android manufacturers in China. Today's Apple mobile phones are gradually left behind by Android flagships in terms of hardware specifications, and the inflated price has also become a criticism for many users. If you only look at the hardware, the Apple mobile phone has lost its "irreplaceable" attribute, and users have more choices. And this also gives WeChat and other manufacturers more confidence, if the "one of the two" situation really happens, more users may not give up WeChat, and instead use an Android phone. In terms of software, the advantages of Apple's App Store are also gradually being lost. With multi-terminal games now a big trend in the industry, and the success of debuting iOS-exclusive games has long been a long time coming, it is becoming increasingly difficult for app stores to lock users into their own systems. On the contrary, Apple's overbearing policies, such as the prolonged offline of Fortnite overseas, are still causing it to lose the trust of more and more users. From the developer's point of view, Apple has not taken the initiative to find ways or application scenarios for Mini Game developers. It's not that Apple hasn't thought about exploring traffic opportunities outside of the app store. For example, in 2019, Apple launched its own game subscription service, Apple Arcade. But in the end, the project didn't make a splash due to the poor response from developers and mediocre user responses. As for mini games, Apple has not paid enough attention to them, and has not launched targeted support programs. Presumably, for Apple, the small games that used to be dominated by IAA (ad paid) are really not that important, and there is no need to prepare for them. In the end, Apple paid the price for its arrogance. When the mini-game started to take off, Apple realized that it had missed the opportunity and had to deal with it in a "blocking" way.

Small games, a small game opportunity that was ignored by Apple in the muffled explosion, have been seized by Chinese manufacturers in the past two years. According to the "Report on China's Game Industry from January to June 2024" released by Gamma Data, the actual sales revenue of mini games in the first half of this year was 16.603 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.5%. Among them, the revenue generated by domestic purchase was 9.098 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.56%, accounting for more than 50% of the total revenue for the first time. At the 2024 WeChat Mini Game Developer Conference, WeChat also announced that the number of Mini Game users has reached 1 billion, with 500 million monthly active users, and more than 240 games with a quarterly turnover of more than 10 million. In the financial reports of major domestic listed game companies in August, the frequency of mini games is also increasing. Century Huatong and Sanqi Mutual Entertainment's revenue in the first half of the year came to 9.276 billion yuan and 9.232 billion yuan respectively, and the competition for the status of "A-share boss" has reached a white-hot point, and one of the battlefields of the two sides is the small game. In the first half of the year, Century Huatong achieved rapid revenue growth with the performance of "Endless Winter". Sanqi Mutual Entertainment relies on small games such as "Seeking the Way" and "Soul Prologue" to maintain stable output. Other manufacturers have also entered the mini game. Giant Network said that "King's Journey" added more than 8 million new users, driving new business growth; CMGE said that the mini game "Don't Run", which has a turnover of more than 10 million; Youzu said that a number of mini-games such as "Codename A" and "Codename Pack" have entered the test, and the company has turned losses into profits. And 4399, Glacier, Kaiying and other manufacturers have also come up with their own core mini-game products. On September 5, Gravity Engine released a "2024 China Top 100 Mini Game Enterprises List", which basically outlined the territory of domestic mini game forces. From these data and lists, we can see that the outbreak of China's mini games is not the success of a certain manufacturer, but the scale effect brought about by the coordinated development of the whole industry chain. From development, distribution, and operation to platform support and user habit cultivation, Mini Games has formed a complete industrial chain. Among them, WeChat and Douyin only play the role of platform parties and supporters, and the entire industrial chain is actually standing behind WeChat. Once China's huge production capacity is activated, it is capable of providing products and services to global players. Even in a small track like a mini game, which was once "looked down upon", the entry of Chinese manufacturers is enough to change a lot of things. On the product side, the biggest change in Mini Games this year is that the efficiency of the update has been greatly improved. Interesting gameplay has been able to be transmitted to the mini-game platform for the first time, so that even the lightest players can also get in touch with the most novel gameplay. For example, "Backpack Brawl", produced by Germany independent developers in March this year, has just made its debut on PC, and by this summer it has already given birth to a new subgenre of "backpack-like". In May this year, Lucky Defense!, a new tower defense product made by Korea, appeared in 3 months, forming an "LD-like" sub-category. It should be pointed out that the production capacity advantage of Chinese manufacturers has long been rid of the copycat model in the early years, and they have taken the route of combining original art, their own values and gameplay integration, and the products that finally run out have good product power. Because of the competitiveness of the products themselves, Chinese manufacturers are now leading the trend of gradually shifting the business model of Mini Games from IAA (ad monetization) to IAP (in-app purchase monetization). Compared with overseas mini games, which are too rough and can only rely more on IAA monetization, this year's domestic mini games have taken the route of high-quality products, which has made IAP monetization products account for more than 50%. According to Sensor Tower data, in the TOP100 list of domestic mini games, IAP revenue has accounted for more than 70%. These changes in Mini Games are ostensibly changes in business models, but they are actually natural trends that will form after the evolution of game quality. There is another phenomenon that also confirms the trend of boutique mini games from the side: that is, the more successful mini games have basically launched corresponding APP versions, and these APPs generally perform well on the iOS best-selling list. For example, the APP version of "Gun at Zombies" became one of the only two new games to enter the top 10 of the iOS best-selling list in April this year, and the APP version of "Endless Winter" also entered the top 10 of the best-selling list after its launch in June, continuing its performance on the mini game side. According to Data.ai data, 62 of the TOP100 best-selling mini games in July this year have APP versions, with a cumulative download of more than 330 million times and a cumulative turnover of 12.1 billion yuan, of which there are more than 24 products with a cumulative turnover of more than 100 million. If calculated according to the 30% commission, these mini-games have brought more than 4 billion revenue to Apple. However, it is precisely these revenues that make Apple anxious. The APP version is still so profitable, is the turnover on the Mini Program side greater? What Apple can't accept is not only that external payments have deprived itself of the opportunity to take a commission, but also that it has lost its grasp of data. Essentially, Apple's challenge with mini-games is the same as the challenge it faces with large-scale, multi-terminal games such as Fortnite and Genshin Impact, that is, when there are more points to the software, Apple's original "closed" business model begins to become precarious.

The challenge has only just begunIn fact, not only in China, but also not only in the field of mini games, the "Apple tax" is now facing challenges from the global market. In Europe, Apple was fined 1.84 billion euros in March this year, and then voluntarily lowered the percentage from 30% to 17%. In markets such as United States, Japan and South Korea, Apple taxes have also been reduced to varying degrees: United States has been reduced to 27%, Korea is 26%, and Japan is about to cut it. China is the only large market that maintains a 30% ratio. In addition, in the European Union and Korea, Apple is also gradually loosening restrictions on third-party application access and application sideloading, more payment methods are being introduced, and Apple's closed walls are being removed. There is a theoretical basis for this change in the overseas market. The book "Technological Feudalism" written by the France scholar Cedric · Durand can be regarded as a popular interpretation of the anti-"apple tax" trend in Europe. The main thrust of the book is simply to point out that the current Internet giants no longer focus on innovation, no longer take productivity improvement as their core competitive advantage, but try their best to use their monopoly position to monopolize the market, turn themselves into giant platforms, and then maintain their profits by taking commissions from both users and manufacturers. This rent-collecting model turned the giant into a "cyber landlord". When profits no longer come from innovation and productivity improvement, but from various commissions and service fees, the platform will eventually become the biggest obstacle to innovation from the former innovation leader. In fact, Apple has now exposed similar problems in both hardware updates and software iterations. In the face of the challenges of domestic Android manufacturers in hardware, in the face of the challenges of the business model of multi-terminal publishing games, Apple does not spend effort to seek hardware innovation or service follow-up, but stares at who "forgets" to pay taxes to itself every day, and even does not let go of market segments such as mini games, it is difficult to say that this is not a manifestation of anxiety. Thanks to the accumulation of the past, Apple is still a giant today. But how long can such an old Ben be eaten is a question mark. For large domestic platforms, they are also facing the temptation of "collecting rent". How to maintain innovation and let their profits come from the improvement of productivity rather than from rent collection, which also tests the determination of every manufacturer. In the subdivision of mini games, Chinese manufacturers have won a game by relying on innovation. But the challenge has only just begun.

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