Text/Yiguang Flow

In the past summer file, the two head two tours that Grape Jun paid the most attention to have been fully successful.

In the past, the global revenue of "Ming Tide" exceeded 600 million in the first month, and the global revenue of "Jeopardy Zero" exceeded 700 million in the first month (both Sensor Tower data).

And what I care more about is that so far, the domestic second tour has completely run through the four roads.

First, the success of 3D card rendering technology + ACT gameplay is replicable, that is, after "Honkai Impact 3", many manufacturers have imitated and borrowed from each other, and there are still the successes of "Battle Double Pamish" and "Jeopardy Zero" to prove the feasibility of this road.

Second, the 3A-like open-world mobile game is replicable, that is, after "Genshin Impact", the successive successes of "Tower of Fantasy" and "Singing Tide" show that this over-specification high-investment route can also have products that continue to obtain sufficient returns.

Third, miHoYo's high-tech + high-art style of play is replicable, and the continuous success of the four products of "Honkai Impact 3", "Genshin Impact", "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" and "Jeopardy Zero" shows that there is still enough room for return on this road.

Fourth, the road of ultra-high cost + multi-terminal synchronization + multi-platform launch + global distribution can continue to be successful, and at least two ACG manufacturers have really gone through this road after "Genshin Impact".

These four roads all have a point, that is, the new generation of the second tour has run through in the direction of "high and high". Many successful cases in front of us will greatly dispel their "chance", and it is expected that this will inevitably stimulate more manufacturers and more market resources to move closer in the same direction. For example, the "Lost Star Chart" we just talked about the day before yesterday.

By extension, if we regard the products that "started from the era of mobile games, aimed at the native two-dimensional users of domestic mobile games, have the characteristics of domestic characteristic two-dimensional content, and take the product model of the miHoYo system as the wind vane" as the new generation of second games.

On the other hand, "starting from an earlier stage, targeting the early Japanese two-dimensional user group, having the content characteristics of Japanese ACG works, and using the early Japanese second game model as the wind vane" can be regarded as a second game in the old era.

So will the domestic second tour market face a turning point: the second tour of the old era, is it time to end?

01

Fragmentation of the user base

The answer to this question is actually foreshadowed.

Two major events have happened in the second game circle this year, the first is the official cutting users of the dusty white forbidden area, which actively caters to ML players; The second is that individual users of miHoYo claim to cut off with the players of the second game. In other words, in the big dye vat of Eryou, there are already irreconcilable opposition problems between some "colors".

ACG users are never exactly the same kind of people.

Countless works have created different groups of people with their own interests, and it is certain that there are boundaries between users, because it is inevitable that different hobbies will cause differences. However, in the early days, the user's energy was not entirely focused on "engaging in confrontation", and the exploration of the work was the main thing.

It's just that when the number of works decreases, the number of users increases, and the circle moves closer from the non-mainstream to the mainstream, different circles are growing, and assimilation and exclusion are also deepening. It wasn't until the first collision between the domestic second game and the capital that the social scolding war began, and since then, Weibo office, sunspot revelations, and mutual scolding have become the norm.

In recent years, with the further compression of the number of top products and the aggravation of the product halo, the fan effect has intensified the social scolding war, and the real sense has formed a "circle confrontation around a single product". This result, whether it is passively formed or actively promoted by some helpers, has brought the social environment of the domestic second tour to the limit.

And so the split in the user base began.

The ML incident is used as the fuse, and whether it is right or wrong, and the cause and effect, as a result, some players who like ML are separated from other players, and "Dusty Forbidden Zone" accepts some ML players by actively catering to them and forms a position. Since then, miHoYo players have also had the topic of cutting, and no matter how big or small the impact is, it is foreseeable that Miyou Club will also serve as their position.

Originally, in the absence of extreme events, new and old users are always in a cultural circle, and they will flow to second-game products for different groups. Some things will not end when they begin, and in an environment where players take the initiative to cut, the official promotes the construction of their own positions, and the public becomes more vigilant due to the scolding war, users will also actively and passively stand in line.

As a result, after the second-game players gradually flow out of social platforms such as Weibo and Bilibili, they will gradually flow to different player positions, forming a more stable circle, and at the same time, because of the opposing views, they will also form a stronger sense of xenophobia.

It should be reminded that the evolution process of user group division is different from user group stratification, the former is more exclusive, and after being divided into two, it may be long-term opposition and old and dead; The latter is more orderly, and people with more experience will guide newcomers to choose works that suit them, and the circle is relatively harmonious and orderly.

Therefore, it is certain that the division of the user group of the second game will inevitably promote the product's standing in line, and the probability of the big pot rice being effective will decrease, and the manufacturer needs to selectively please some people, but at the same time, it cannot avoid offending another part of the people.

02

Second, the benchmark of the tour is renewed

At the same time as the new and old users are divided, the wind direction and benchmark of the second game works are also changing.

At present, the second game works represented by Japanese comics have launched domestic first-line sequences, and their influence in the international arena is also decreasing.

In the early years, the vane of the second tour was the Japanese manga and the Japanese second tour. The enlightenment of the domestic second game market,Relying on the Japanese works of ship C、FGO,For a long time,Japanese comic IP、Comic mobile game、Imported Japanese tour,It's a very strong force in China。 These are also products that old ACG players are keen on.

However, in recent years, the value of Japanese second tours has declined significantly. First of all, Riman's IP fails,At present, the cases that can benefit from Riman's IP in the domestic market,Basically, they all use"Classic big IP+Large traffic"The way of playing,This set of play is basically only suitable for head companies。 It is difficult for small and medium-sized teams to survive on Japanese comic IP, such as the mobile game "Dating Wars", which once supported the original work, and the ending is regrettable.

At the same time, it is becoming more and more difficult for Japanese games to enter the Japan market. In the early years, you can still see products such as "Blue Fantasy" and "Princess Connection" that have performed strongly in Asia, and in the past two years, Japanese hits like "Horse Racing Girl" can only be seen in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and the output to the Chinese and Korean markets is weak.

The only Japanese second game that can be used in the past two years is the "Azure Archive" developed by the Korea team and released by the Chinese team in Japan, which makes people sigh at the loneliness of the Japanese second game.

In contrast, the original IP of mobile games, centered on domestic secondary games, has become a benchmark for domestic secondary games, and has gradually become a global benchmark.

In China, miHoYo has three Honkai IPs built by games, and the current influence of "Genshin Impact" and "Jeopardy Zero" is enough to become the first generation of IP. Eagle Point's "Ark of Tomorrow" has the cooperation of "The End", and when it works properly, it is a first-line IP. Kuluo's battle double series and the latest Ming Tide have IP influence, and although the Shaoqian series of scattered explosions has encountered difficulties, it is also a second-game IP that has accumulated three generations of products. These are the vanes of the hot discussion of the new generation of domestic second-game users.

Overseas, Mijia Sanji and "Singing Tide" have opened up a good situation, and are gradually radiating the influence of IP outward. For example, in July this year, the Korean media This Is Game lamented that the 4 ACG models with the highest MAU in the local area are all from China, of which "Jeopardy Zero" has 721,000 MAUs, with an average daily activity of 142,000, ranking first on the list, followed by "Genshin Impact", "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" and "Ming Tide", followed by local products "NIKKE" and "Azure Files".

Through 4 years and 3 generations of products, the domestic second game has basically established the cognition of young users around the world on the two-dimensional game, and if it goes on for another two or three years, maybe "China Second Game" will become an international business card for exclusive young players.

03

Establishment of new rules

At the same time as the general environment is upgrading, domestic second-game products are also establishing new production and management rules, and at the same time gradually eliminating the old era of second-game play.

The first is the change in the logic of content creation and expression of the second game.

The set of rules for content creation, expression, and understanding that has been established by Japanese two-dimensional works for a long time has gradually become invalid in China, and the content values derived from Eryou are also different from the past.

Specifically, the cuteness, ignition, and tears of Japanese two-dimensional works, as well as the corresponding content routines, are basically no longer the mainstream content strategy of the second game except in the Japan market. For example, although the tear-jerking master Asaeda Jun's "Blazing Sky Dome" has been popular in Japan to this day, it can only move some players who understand Japanese in China, and the public two-dimensional users are not interested in it.

From the production point of view, the expression of the Japanese second game focuses on the grasp of details and emotions, and it needs enough experienced talents to support long-term creation, but on the one hand, there are not enough such talents in China, and there will only be fewer talents who can actually be converted into game copywriting.

Just like the old drama bones only rely on past experience, it is difficult to adapt to the rules of small fresh meat star-making in the traffic era, and it is inevitable to be aggrieved, for the high-speed domestic two-game production line, the Japanese two-dimensional set of slow-burning content is not reproducible, and the return on investment is not high.

In contrast, after accumulation, the domestic second tour has formed a set of content production and performance rules based on industrial pipelines, focusing on technical art expression, which is more in line with the public perspective.

In the past few years, the industrialization and involution of technical art have magnified players' pursuit of technical art, and to a certain extent, the importance of plot and delicate emotions to the overall content has been ignored. At the same time, in order to expand revenue, mainstream products will also take the initiative to move closer to the positioning of bigger and wider, which further restricts the space for content forms and expressions such as copywriting style and expression.

Therefore, the domestic market has gradually formed a default rule, that is, as long as the technical art is always ahead of the user's aesthetic awareness, the product is good enough at the overall content level, and it will continue to attract the attention of users.

With the popularity of domestic second games in the world, this kind of rule has also begun to penetrate the international market, and accelerate the elimination of the content rules established by the old era of second games. For example, in the white paper released by Twitter not long ago, it was mentioned that among the top ten Twitter games in 2024, six of them are two-dimensional games, and the first and third places are domestic second games.

The second is the replacement of the gameplay system.

The second game of the old era, represented by the Japanese second game, relies more on the Japanese "collection and development gacha" set of gameplay. On the one hand, this set of gameplay is slower to heat up, and it is easy to closely integrate with the presentation rhythm of Japanese two-dimensional content. On the other hand, this set of gameplay is highly compatible, and can be adjusted according to the charging intensity and integrated with various gameplay systems.

It's just that after years of development, the limitations of the collection and cultivation gameplay have also been figured out. Because the ultimate service of the collection and development gameplay is to "cultivate the player's love for the character", which requires a lot of content and details to support, so in most cases, the collection and development gameplay does not require too much gameplay innovation, and the corresponding content can only be presented in a 2D environment, otherwise the production cost in the 3D environment cannot be bearable.

Therefore, there are few products in the collection and cultivation system to make high-quality 3D works, and it is difficult to rely on the paid rate of return of this system to support the ultra-high investment of products similar to the big world and open world.

The new generation of second-game products and manufacturers are trying the road of "high technology + high art", starting with the 3D card rendering + ACT system of "Honkai Impact 3", and most products will basically go to the big map scene. From the perspective of core gameplay, the direction of this type of product is more hardcore, so as to deliberately create a stronger sense of immersion, operation and feedback, so that the built large scenes and 3D worlds can be fully utilized.

From the perspective of cost, compared with 2D, the increase in the basic production cost of 3D content makes the game need sufficient cost investment and high enough return on investment to fill the hole in order to present a sufficient volume of two-dimensional content. Therefore, this further requires the product to build a gameplay system with stronger long-term bundling capabilities, deeper research range, and a larger experience of the world, so as to attract and retain players as much as possible to support the operation of the product.

Therefore, in the new generation of the second game, unless the goal is lowered, the mainstream products are moving closer to the product template of miHoYo.

Finally, there is the renewal of the product experience.

The experience of the second tour in the old times is more varied. Since most of these games are designed with the gameplay of "collection and cultivation + X", they are naturally compatible with a variety of light, medium, and heavy products, and on the whole, these products have a lot of differences in core gameplay experience, paid experience, and content experience.

For example, the lightly casual "Strange Microbial Egg Research Institute" makes the process of collection and cultivation the core gameplay, and players can obtain new species (i.e., characters) by cultivating microorganisms (instead of drawing cards), and gradually fill the Pokédex.

There is also a similar moderate tower defense game "Cat Wars", which takes into account the role of card drawing and the lively tower defense gameplay, the freshness of the character is greater than the emotional bond, and there is not too much burden to play.

There are also more serious products such as "Hatsune Miku PJSK", which require players to put more effort into the characters and have a stronger sense of binding, but as long as the content is done well, the brand recognition and payment stickiness brought by it are more considerable.

Further, the game ecology formed by this kind of old-school second game focuses more on light socialization, the symbiosis of players at different levels, and several characteristics of good word-of-mouth communication. Therefore, the game may be slower to heat up, but after it takes shape, the cohesion and tolerance of players and the community will be stronger.

The experience of the new generation of second tours tends to be more homogeneous. Due to the limitations brought about by high investment, such products often have similar gameplay systems, such as 3D + action + open world, correspondingly, the experience brought by the game to players is similar in nature and more serious. For example, hidden treasure chests, big world running maps, mazes and traps, etc.

At the same time, due to the basic demand for high return on payment brought about by high investment, such games are often more afraid to take risks in terms of payment and cultivation mechanisms, and will use existing templates on the market.

For example, the gacha design routine we wrote some time ago is "low probability + mixed pool + size guarantee". Again, regardless of the gacha description and trick mechanics, this type of paid design is essentially the same experience for players. Another example is a similar cultivation module, a similar version, a daily routine, a brush equipment, a krypton strength process, etc.

Therefore, on the basis of the homogenization of the "in-game" gameplay experience, such games often use the differences of "out-of-game" derivative content to balance the difference of players' comprehensive experience, and improve players' emotional value, activity, and purify stickiness and loyalty.

For example, official promotional PV, greeting pictures, strip comics, music EPs, and even official novels, comics, animations, etc. There are also manufacturers who actively promote fanworks to allow players to achieve content self-sufficiency.

Further, players of this type of product will be more active in the community, and will vent their emotions that cannot be satisfied in the game to the community. As a result, the new generation of second games is more likely to form a fan effect, and players' emotions and preferences are also more likely to go to extremes, so it is inevitable that there will be more and more waves of public opinion such as community Tatakai, and the more fermentation, the larger the scale.

Over time, the new generation of second tours and the products affected by them have to follow the community and public opinion. And whoever holds the right to speak in the community and public opinion is the one who makes the rules. This has also led to the rise of the new generation of second games while breaking the original market rules and re-establishing a set of rules that are more beneficial to themselves.

On the other hand, the second tour of the old era is slowly losing its dominant position.

04

The old era will come to an end

In the past, both new and old players, new and old players, were always in a big dye vat, and there were no too clear antagonisms and factions.

And this year, more and more signals are showing that the user group is beginning to be clearly divided, game manufacturers are also actively closing different groups, and the trend of the market and capital is also driving this process.

During this period, some people were purified, and some people were eliminated; Some products are submerged, and some products are worshipped.

But no matter what the state of sentient beings is, the cake of the Eryou Market is always there, you don't eat it, and some of it is Palu to eat.

Therefore, the general trend of changing the dynasty is unstoppable. The stage of the second tour in the old era has come to an end unconsciously.

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